I'm starting to cave

I'm starting to cave on the Kinect.

Here's my current line of reasoning - check my math...

1. I expect the 360 to be the main console in Microsoft's arsenal until about November 2013.  2012 at the earliest.  If this is so, considering Rock Band downloads, game DLC, installing a game every so often, demos and XBLA games, I should be running out of space some time in mid 2011.  Hence, a 250 GB hard drive is probably a wise bet.
2. A 250 GB drive costs $130 at retail.
3. Kinect costs $150 at retail.  I think this is a bit high, and would bite on a $100 price point (with pack-in game).
4. The 250GB Slim with Kinect is $400.
5. A new controller costs about $40 at Amazon.
6. A new headset is $20?
7. 400 - 340 = $60 to upgrade a quieter, sexier slim.
8. Add back $20 for a hard drive transfer cable, $80 to upgrade to a quieter, sexier slim.
9. Add back another $50 for my perceived price point of the Kinect and the slim comes to $130.
10. A 4GB slim w/o Kinect is $200.  $140 if you remove controller and headset.
11. A 4GB slim w/ Kinect is $300.  Add in a 250GB HDD, and I'm already over the price point of the 250GB slim w/Kinect.
12. If it turns out that the Kinect is a failure, and in a year's time, completely unsupported (I'm looking at my HD-DVD drive right now), then I'm out $100, rather than $150 as an early adopter tax.

So, in closing, getting a 250GB Slim with Kinect actually saves me money!

I hate my brain.