A Digression into a Tangent

I started this blog with the strict intention of only talking about my experience with games. This site being what it is, I figured that subject matter might be interesting to the readers, and could perhaps spark some funny comments or reveal kindred spirits. However, my interest in politics, combined with Thursday’s events in Iowa, are proving to be a powerful combination, and I feel the need to discuss a topic that might fall into the realm of the “serious” as opposed to the “t0ti11y FuN & Aww5uM.”

I’m going to come out and say it: I like Obama.

Now, if I were to label my political views, I would say that I am a conservative. However, the idea of conservatism has been so warped in recent years, it’s has little to do with what I feel conservatism really means. I am interested in limited government. That concept applies to both the economic and social spheres. Government should keep taxes low, services limited, economic restrictions balanced with social impact, and shouldn’t be involved with who gets to marry and who doesn’t. Today, conservatism has more to do with what church you attend and if you would rather outlaw gay marriage or gays altogether (because I am sure there are plenty of people who think the latter question can be settled by legislation). So, for ease of conversation, I usually say that my views are somewhat libertarian, with a small “l.” As opposed to big “L” Libertarians, who can sometimes be capital “C” Curmudgeons. For more on that last part, see LewRockwell.com. Oh, and go buy some gold, or something.

Obama is definitely in the liberal camp, but not in the cartoonish, he’s-an-elitist-and-a-coward-way, far from it. I simply mean that his policies tend to be left of center. So how could I possibly support someone who has many positions that differ from my own?

Calm down, I’m getting to it.

The last seven years under the current administration have divided the country at a time when it needs to be the most unified. Apparently, the phrase “either you’re with us, or you’re with the terrorists” wasn’t meant just for other nations, but for the domestic populace as well. In that latter case, you can take “us” to mean “the government”, specifically “the Bush Administration”; something which I find “positively frightening.” The last thing I need is for my own government to assume I hate America just because I think their plans for various military adventures are, to put it politely, not well thought out. A corollary to the last thing I need is a bunch of my fellow countrymen taking this new approach as a license to accuse anyone who disagrees with their personal political views as being a traitor (which, I think, sums up Ann Coulter’s entire body of work).

A divided nation cannot defeat a global enemy. A nation that snubbs its allies cannot defeat a global enemy. A nation that cannot recognize the mistakes it’s made in fighting that enemy will continue to make mistakes and not be able to secure victory. What we need now is someone who can look past the differences that divide us, find common ground, and make it clear to friend and foe alike that America is still a great nation that will not shirk from the challenges that confront it. No other candidate can deliver the magnanimity and break from the past this nation needs like Obama can. Judging by the turnout in Iowa, 57% of which were first time caucus goers, none of the other candidates can inspire like Obama , and I don’t think anyone can unite the nation like he can. Clinton surely can’t do it. She’s too polarizing a figure, and she offers nothing approximating Obama's vision or boldness. She’s also too stuck in the ways of petty partisanship. Obama has made it clear that he wants to unite the nation, whereas Clinton only wants those who have “seen the light” to flock to her banner. Edwards? Unremarkably mediocre. Nice hair, though.

As for the Republicans…what a mess. They offer nothing in the way of a new direction or fresh ideas. In fact, Romney’s mention of “doubling Gitmo” and Guiliani’s non-stop referencing of 9/11 shows that the Republican field is either ready to continue the mistakes of the past, or just live there full time, respectively. Huckabee seems like a nice guy, but he appeals primarily to fundamentalist Christians who like him because, well, he’s a fundamentalist Christian. If you’re not in that camp, then there’s not much else he can offer, especially in the realm of foreign affairs. I doubt he will be able to capitalize on his recent success, as we will see in New Hampshire in a few days.

Speaking of New Hampshire, I’m going to make some predictions. I see McCain narrowly beating Romney, with Giuliani third, and Huckabee fourth. In the big picture, I think Romeny will ultimately get the delegates for the Republican nomination. However, don’t take that to mean I think he’s an able campaigner. Really, I think he wins by default. Huckabee appeals only to fundamentalists, and I don’t think there’s enough of them to deliver the requisite delegates. Guiliani appeals primarily to people who have bomb shelters in their backyards, and there aren’t many of them, thankfully. McCain is the only other candidate who appeals to several demographics, but his criticism of Bush in the past might, by some malevolent cosmic irony, hurt him in the primaries.

As for the Democrats in New Hampshire, I see Obama beating Clinton, with Edwards in third, and Richardson fourth. I don’t think Richardson’s campaign will survive to see the South Carolina primary. Edwards will make it to Super Tuesday, but drop out after that. I think Obama and Clinton will be slugging it out through Super Tuesday, where she will most likely pick up a few big wins, specifically California and New York. I’m not sure what it will take for her to pack it up, but I hope the packing up happens by March. Considering that she will most likely win the bigger states, including Florida, this could be a protracted struggle. Maybe the first time that I can remember when the future nominee wasn't decided by March or April. I have a feeling we'll be counting delegates into late April.