CHOOSE THE WINNER

For two months in a row now, the Xbox 360 has solidly outsold the PlayStation 3. But in an interview last week, a PlayStation executive said that the Xbox 360's rise was a "blip" attributable to its September price cut and that the consoles would be neck and neck during the holidays.

"We're going to see a very tight race this holiday because of our gaming lineup," said John Koller, Sony's director of hardware marketing. "We're very bullish on holiday sales."

Of course, Microsoft is talking up its own holiday prospects, partly on the basis of its own titles, as well as the price cut, which brought the price of the Xbox 360 Arcade to $199. In an e-mail I received earlier this week, a spokesman wrote, "Microsoft is uniquely positioned for a record breaking holiday and we look forward to sharing the results with you!"

But Sony's Koller said that Microsoft's edge over the PS3 would not last through the holidays because sales boosts due to price drops have a "shelf life" of two to three months. For instance, after Sony cut the price of the PS3 in June 2007, sales jumped from 95,000 that month to 159,000 that July. In August 2007, they dropped to 130,000, though, and by September they had stabilized at 119,000, a level that they would maintain through that October.

(There were, of course, other factors at work, besides the price cut, notably the late September release of "Halo 3," exclusively for the Xbox 360).

So far this year, sales of the PS3 and the Xbox 360 are essentially tied, with each console maker selling about 2.4 million units. Prior to the price cut, though, the PS3 had the lead, with 2 million unit sales through August to the Xbox 360's 1.7 million.

"You are going to see all consoles do well seasonally," Koller said. "Going into next year that's when proof is going to be."

Here's a chart, comparing Xbox 360, Wii and PS3 sales since June 2007. A couple of things to note: The spike is last December. Sales of the PS3 increased in July 2007 after the price cut. And sales of the Xbox 360 have increased since the September 2008 price cut.