the future of gaming
the future of gaming
I gotta say things don't look so good.
The next gen consoles look like Sony and MS are going to digital downloads only with extra DRM sauce so you can kiss Gamefly and Gamestop goodbye.
No more selling your overhyped, FAIL used games on ebay either as there wont be any game discs to sell.
Then you have Publishers like Activision, EA, THQ, etc buying out all the small game developers and making them crank out trash sequels like Rock Band 33, MW3, Dragon Age 2, Command and Conquer TA, MOH 2010 and yes even BF3 which is not really a sequel.
Next come SUBSCRIPTION services like COD elite and BF premium where you pay for stuff in advance that you have no idea is any good or not.
Gotta say I think the golden age of videogames is over (EXCEPT for maybe on the PC) - definitely over for Console gaming.
The whole darn world is being taken over by a few giant companies that gobble the good small guys up and then crank out soylent green product lines.
Walmart, Disney, Airlines, the big banks - not just video games.
when people are willing to pay for crap, crap is what the sellers will give them...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-LE0ycgkBQ
Welcome to the 21st Century.
This is my take on it, and not a personal jab at you.
I've said it before - gamers are mostly apathetic . Great at complaining but won't do anything to change it.
I see a lot of blame aimed at " casual gamers ", but they're the reason EA and friends exist.
Whatever a hardcore gamer is, it doesn't exist in sufficient quantities to have any bearing on the turd polishing market that is AAA game publishing, or the market in general.
That's due to the uber dominance of consoles, which by their nature are casual, convenient and relatively affordable.
I think the " Golden Age ", ( whenever that was - around Metal Gear Solid for me :o) ), is over on PC too.
You can stick with it, or do what I did, and bail.
I have a PC with COD4 for my infrequent multiplayer needs, other than that, I'll buy the occasional game on Steam when its cheap.
I really don't see them going to digital distribution....yet
When you start adding in all of the DLC, DRM, and patches we're basically there. It's awfully hard to be a gamer today without broadband. We're seeing all entertainment sectors go digital and that's scary due to a poor set of laws and a poor broadband infrastructure. CDs are rumored to be gone within the next few years and it is only a matter of time until larger media follows suit. There are simply too many advantages in terms of profitibality and control for the publisher.
Gaming has a lot of problems now. Competition is healthy, but too much competition and an industry falls apart and we're seeing that here. That's a primary cause for a lot of the issues that really aggravate gamers (and that list is rather huge).
There are a lot of games out there and a lot of platforms to put those games on and while gaming usage continues to grow that competition makes a return on investment rough on each individual product. Even the big producers are only really living off a handful of games a year. The little fish survive by outproducing their means and remaining small, though that often makes them susceptible to buy outs from large publishers who often dismantle and sell off their pieces. AAA titles at this point can't go away because those are the only ones that can reliably bring in a crowd to allow other projects to be funded.
Even in that group there is trouble brewing. Vivendi wants to sell Activision Blizzard and THQ is in serious financial troubles.
That dominance may be the best thing to ever happen to PC gaming. Consider the biggest gripes from non-PC gamers over the years and one of them will be the perception that they must continually buy new hardware (not that that isn't true with this generation of consoles and their rampant need for 9000 skus). The consoles essentially set an upper limit on hardware specs and therefore drastically slowed hardware creep. A 4 or 5 year old quad core right now still surpasses the games you would play it on. Upgrade the video card periodically and you're pretty set. The other way that console 'dominance' has aided PC gaming is in the exposure of the draconian policies of Sony/MS with regards to smaller developers. Those consoles created services that initially looked friendly to developers, but later those developers discovered high costs, low return, and horrible, horrible service. Many have fled to PC and services like Steam.
I don't believe Microsoft even allows free content. Furthermore, though, the entire free to play, 'freemium' business model is unproven to work on a large scale. I don't see any evidence that anyone really knows what the business model of the future will be which is likely why we see so many in use today. In some cases, the legality of these business models is up for debate.
I'd go one step further when one considers mobile devices as well. There are multiple platform titles being released now that have 9 or 10 systems attached. The marketplace is ludicrously fragmented at this point.
Innovation, evolution..........whatever we want to call it.........that's tricky to define in gaming. The dominant control device has been virtually unchanged since dual analogs became standard (in terms of strictly PC gaming even longer than that). The dominant genres are unchanged since the mid-90's. Alterations like motion controls haven't really come to the forefront as expected. It's a very backwards time in this regard. The saying is that "necessity is the mother of all invention" but if you look at gaming it is more like "invention is the mother of necessity". We're inventing controls that have no real function and then scratching our heads figuring out how to use them. Why? For no other reason that the sake of innovation itself. Put it on a console to attempt to differentiate and then force it as a control means. For every "Red Steel 2" we get an entire drawer full of games that are no different than they were the last generation just with a button press replaced with a waggle. Every once in a while you get a game like 'Dart Rage' on the Wii. A very simple game like Darts that is virtually impossible to make fun with a different control method and yet, because it isn't funded and sales aren't expected to be high, you get a game with a great set of controls packaged in a cardboard box of nothingness.
Innovation is tough in gaming in part because the players get in the way. Consider the MMO for instance. How many of them have tried to get away from the 'holy trinity'? I've seen some really good ideas thrown away because players, expecting a certain set of ideas, have tried to force the 'holy trinity' into a game's skill system where it didn't fit. Then they get mad because 'it isn't an MMO' and leave. Developers, and more importantly publishers, see this and stick with what is safe. It's like a football coach. Many of the decisions made in the game of football are mathematically wrong. Punting too much, for instance. However, if a coach doesn't punt in a situation that he is expected to do so he risks enormous backlash and <potentially> a firing. Therefore, no matter how wrong the decision may be he will usually go with the expected decision.
No,
I still have hope for PC gaming - with stuff like Planetside 2, Arma 3 and a bunch of Kickstarter project stuff like Takedown.
The xbox 720 and PS4 may still have optical drives, but I see most console things going Subscription or Free 2 Play micro-transaction model instead of the blockbuster $60 AAA titles.
COD elite and BF premium are just the start of turning games into subscription services like World of Warcraft.
I sometimes wish Steam/Valve would have really come out with an open-source "Steam box" game console. So far it's just been rumors.
The better gaming environment is with small developers who are close to their players, who listen and make changes. In turn, their players create devoted fan communities and put out stuff like free Mods and maps and extra content. Everyone benefits.
but what happens now days is that all the good small Devs get gobbled up by the likes of EA, Activision and THQ and their games turned into overhyped trash sequels like MW3, halo ODST, ME3, Dragon Age 2, Guitar hero 99, etc.
If it wasn't for a few good PC companies and project kickstarter - http://www.kickstarter.com/discover/categories/games
I'd have no hope at all for the future of gaming.
There's not a single console exclusive game that has subscriptions, or pay to win style micro transactions but I can name quite a few on the PC that do both. The COD elite or BF Premium or any of those season passes ARE NOT subscriptions like WoW. You're not being forced to shell out monthly payments to play the game. You're just given the option to buy the DLC in advance at a very slightly discounted price. Most people that regularly play COD or BF would probably buy the DLC anyway, this just lets them save 5 or 10 bucks.
On the topic of Battlefield though, their "rent a server" idea could be exactly what screws over console gamers. Every other FPS has always included private games for free, even the other games in the series have had free private games. Suddenly BF3 decides to charge $25 a month for the very same thing you could do in BC2 for free, and people line up for the chance to pay it. Now that the precedent is set, what's to stop Blops 2 from deciding to make you pay 400 Microsoft points to unlock the ability to customize your weapon or Halo 4 charging 80 points for every custom map you want to upload?
PC gaming is no better. As much fun as Steam is, I don't think I can play TF2 and Counter Strike forever. Plus most of those indie games jsut wind up being single player things you're done with in 2 hours or 50 million versions of Bejewled. And I challenge you to find a $99 computer that'll play every PC game 5 years from now like my xbox will.
Personally I'm not that worried about the future of gaming. Even if everything goes digital all it'll mean is less money for smaller companies. Certain games like Halo I know I'm going to get day 1 and pay full price for, so who cares where I get it from. Then the games like Kingdoms of Amalur I don't really want right away, if the price never drops that company simply won't get my money. I'd rather not play that game then pay $60 for it. Or I'll wind up pirating a copy of it.
PC gaming is much better imho. I switched back to PC gaming a couple of months ago and haven't turned on my 360, PS3 or Wii since. The number of quality games at quality prices is ridiculous on the PC. The number of free games that are AAA quality is astounding. And the number of indy games that you can in at the ground level with Alpha builds (DayZ) or kickstarters is never ending. I'm playing higher quality games, with better controllers (M+K) with tons of free mods and dedicated servers for a cheaper price. PC gaming is alright by me!
I just see these things as a slippery slope.
Next year I bet you will see more Free 2 Play with microtransactions coming to Console - I think Crytek is going 100% free to play
http://pc.gamespy.com/pc/warface/1225042p1.html
they won't be the only ones as CCP is doing Dust 514 on PS3 as F2P.
If Planetside 2 and Arma 3 turn out to be any good, I may join Blowmonkey and switch over to PC gaming.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qz093VCXI2o&feature=related
Taco,t here are subscription game, but they are MMOs, like DCUO. I kept my subscription up to see today's The Last Laugh DLC. I love Mark hamill as the Joker so I want to check that out. Otherwise i am cancelling my supscription. I haven't played i tin 3 weeks. I cna live of free 2 play now with that game.
Yeah, but those are on the PC too. I just said there were none that were console exclusive, and I don't see that changing. Seems like nobody really likes MMOs on consoles, and aside from BF3 players nobody is stupid enough to pay per month for any other sort of game.
If xbox were to do the Steam kinda thing, they would make a fuck ton of money. Let us pre download the newest games and unlock them at midnight sure beats waiting 3 hours in line at Best Buy. Then actually having games get discounted as they get older and even having some on sale would mean cheap people like me would be more likely to get some of them.
People have been saying "This is as good as it's going to get" ever since the wheel. "This wheel thing go nowhere, I see us go back walking soon", lol. Both MS and Sony have said they aren't getting rid of optical drives for their next systems. And with a standard 10-12 year concole cycle, that means we'll still be using games bought in a box for a long time to come.
Personally, I'm waiting for Virtual Reality, something along those lines. I can't wait for a game where I can be immersed in a way we haven't even considered yet. Maybe a holographic projector that uses your face as a reference point so where you look, it looks. Maybe a full body VR suit you can wear that would let you feel when you are shot and where (insert Japanese porn game joke here, lol).
While yes, casual and free to play markets are big business right now, who knows what the future may bring. Thinking that just because gaming has become big business that it will fade away is a very pessimistic view. I, for one, couldn't be more excited to see what's next.
PC gaming is on an enormous up swing. I'm not sure where people are getting their figures from, but as early as 2010 the PC market has been growing exponentially while consoles (and their let's make another FPS model) have been dwindling. Huge players like Blizzard have released block buster NON mmo game already this year, proving Hack and Slash and RTS are still not dead. Diablo 3 destroyed sales numbers while bringing in many new gamers to the PC platform. Hell, Star Craft 2 not only over took Halo at MLG, but it's the single largest draw of views that MLG has ever seen.
Obviously I'm bias as I moved almost %100 to PC 3 years ago, but one doesn't need to be bias to see the facts. The real goal for devs is merging the market place as more and more games move from PC to Console and Console to PC. Trust me, Sony and MS see what is happening with Steam and want that model. Hell, all console models still come from the PC first. PC gamers are the test bed for what may or may not work.
So no, PC gaming isn't even close to dead and neither is evolution in gaming. Like others have said before me, just look at all the kickstarter projects, and small companies popping up doing amazing things with titles. Asynchronistic gaming was a huge thing at E3 this year (next topic on our podcast this week) and I don't see that idea dying off any time soon. Have you guys seen Natural Selection 2? I'm not saying it's a game you'll love, but at least they're pushing the boundaries a bit while maintain an 8 man team of devs.
PC gaming was seemingly on life support for a while but it's on a revive, even I stuck my tip back into PC gaming and I haven't bought a PC game in 10 years, since the Xbox first launched in fact.
For me jumping back into PC gaming was due to two major factors. THe first is that the console games have become stale, we're just playing the same 3 or 4 franchises that we were when the 360 first launched, it's gears, halo, cod, battlefield. Anything with any amount of innovation has gone the way of the doedoe bird. All the mid sized dev studios are dieing because gamers aren't buying their shit and mostly it's new IP stuff. What the gamers are buying are assembly line franchises that are getting pumped out sequel after sequel and its' fucking boring.... i'm about ready to just stop buying/playing shooters. They're not fun, not innovative and thsi years version is practically the same as last years sequel. I've just had enough of it personally.
Then the second reason is that the PC has overtaken console capabilities by a huge magnitude . Graphics cards that can surpass the 360's graphical abilities can be had for 50-80 dollars and processors for 100-150. You can build a gaming PC that surpasses Xbox 360 for about the same money especially if you can just buy a new proc and gpu and put those in yoru existing mobo&case.
I really think the console market NEEDS a new console... like now this year and I don't mean another Nintendo fail either, i mean a real console.
That being said, the same bullshit nonsense that was there 10 years ago in PC gaming that were factors in driving me to consoles are still present and arguable holding that platform back like Unified speech chat and intrusive DRM.
An article on pcgamer.com ya'll might find interesting.......
http://www.pcgamer.com/2011/09/23/nvidia-says-pc-games-to-overtake-consoles-by-2014/
The EU is much more consumer friendly than the USA.
lots of yanks think that the US laws are pretty much written by the corporate lobbyists who outnumber the legislators by 9000 to 1.
AMerican elections are also pretty much $money$ driven and guess who can give the biggest $$$ to campaigns - it isn't Joe Public - it's all those Banks and big companies that keep getting bailed out.
I'm hoping that the new Ouya console can break the monopoly of the big 3 - Sony, MS, Nintendo - but I'm realistic in that it will likely be a niche player.
In the end, console gamers will still end up paying $$$ for recycled games from the likes of EA, Activision, THQ, etc.
those who are sick of the crappy console choices will move on to PC gaming like the pcgamer article predicts.
There have always been cycles of PC and Console, as the consoles reach the end of their life on the tech curve so PC's again become the platform of choice for gamers wanting to see the best eye candy and newest game engines. This current cycle has been rather long and the consoles have fallen a long way behind. So even I, a dyed in the wool console user since the first Xbox due to the stupid, expensive and complicated upgrade treadmill associated with PC's has built an all singing all dancing, triple screen PC gaming rig because I am fed up with waiting for the next gen console. By the time the 720 arrives my PC will be so last year, I did my best to future proof, my PC is bleeding edge but not for long.
The thing about gaming is like music it has a never ending user base, as the first gamers get older and set in their ways a new generation rises to drive a new cycle of dev talent and users. Younger gamers on the whole do not have the disposable income to spend thousands on a gaming PC so they will start on Consoles, the loss of the second hand market is a sad development, the less well off gamers will lose out big time. It will put a greater strain on cash strapped parents and is very short sighted for the industry as a whole. I have lost count of the amount of games a have bought second hand, enjoyed and consequently bought the next one on release, without that first second hand buy the second would never have happened. Also the sale of second hand games finances the buying of new ones so without that less games will be bought...bad move it seems to me.
The interesting next development for me is hardware independent gaming, the whole kit and caboodle stored on servers, you log in and play on your console, PC, internet enabled TV whatever and everyone gets the same visual experience.
DLC for me is a pain in the arse...sorry "ass" for my American friends. I have a data cap of 25GB a month, my move to PC has made a big hole in that. So it seems to me the future could be gaming for the elite, those with unlimited data and a big disposable income...what a long way from it's roots, coding and selling games on cassettes from your bedroom.
Bingo. Right now, developers are starting to make games for the next-gen consoles, so you'll see a lot more activity on the PC because the more powerful hardware on the next-gen consoles overlap more easily with modern PCs. Saying that PC gaming is going through a revival is pretty shortsighted, and I say this as having spent about a decade being a hardcore PC gamer. Once the new consoles come out, PC games will be back to being the platform that receives console ports and F2P games. It's simple business: consoles have a larger audience than PC, and unfortunately, PC games are still plagued by pirates, and you'll see a lot more online-only DRM schemes like in Diablo 3 to prevent that.
As for the OP, I think he's being paranoid. There's no chance the consoles will go completely digital only. People still have bandwidth caps on their internet connections, so forcing people to download a 5GB+ game is stupid. Also, developers and publishers whine about used games sales, but that's because they're inept at business. They whine about their $60, 4 hour long game not selling because of used game sales, yet they continue to sell their games through Gamestop, send them promotional material to sell those games, and offer pre-order bonuses exclusively through Gamestop. What you're seeing is a lot of bad business people making a scapegoat out of used games, but they know the second they prevent that gamers will through flaming bags of crap through their windows and lose out on a lot of money,
Yes I think you may be right that data capping may just mean the survival of hard copy games for the next gen, rumor is also that the 720 will also have an upgrade path...not a good thing from my point of view. Being locked in to one hardware model means the software writers have to work hard to push the limits, I think we can agree the games for the 360 have pushed the console far beyond the look of the early games, so you get maximum life out of your investment. PC's rarely if ever get pushed. The developers just move to the next generation of graphics cards and processors. This is what moved so many of us to Consoles in the first place. If the next consoles do the same...well what will the point of buying them be? they will suffer the same disease PC's do. Sorry you need to upgrade your console to play this game. Ah well time will tell, and we will spend the money either way.
Great comments on data caps. Some may be aware of the OnLive gaming service, a cloud based service that streams games to a console or your PC. it's a neat idea, except they're going through insolvency after going to the brink of shutdown. If you haven't tried it, it is a neat alternative, though I fear it won't last in its current form. The problem, much like the Powerglove in the '80s, is that it is simply ahead of its time. The bandwidth isn't there, and because of that, graphics tend to be quite mediocre for titles that are available (often at the same price) on other consoles and PCs because the service sets the graphics options to match the available bandwidth.
Some feel this form of gaming is the future. It's harder to pirate (though servers such as Blizzards haven't proven to be immune to such actions). It's easier to distribute, even in comparison to download services such as Steam. Potentially it could be much cheaper. However, there isn't anywhere near the infrastructure in place. The price structures to access such a service, ala ISPs, isn't really in place for that volume, either.
That's a big stumbling block for gaming as it makes its transition, much like music has already done, from hard copy to digitial distribution.
Not discounting the aforementioned hurdles, is this really a case of 'no chance'? There are loads and loads and loads of titles on mobile, console, and PC that are digital download only and most mainstream titles that aren't have a plethora of patches and DLC that are digital download only. Laptops are produced without a optical drive at all. Retailers such as Best Buy, key distributing chains, are in dire financial straights.
I'm probably more of a pessimist than a paranoid.
It's not just the gaming industry that is going downhill.
Almost all businesses are getting whittled down from good products based on competition between MANY small companies -
to watered down crap when just a FEW BIG companies take over the field.
It happened with Walmart, it happened with Airlines, it happened with Banking and it has happened with Gaming software.
I would not be surprised if Activision sells off Blizzard and merges with EA.
or if Sony and Microsoft combine their gaming assets at some future point, not next year, but maybe 5 years from now.
war is peace, slavery is freedom, ignorance is strength
- Big Brother
my predictions for Battlefield 4 and the next COD after Black Ops 2.
1. they will be free to play, not $60 titles and have micro-transactions
2. they will have some sort of subscription service option similar to current Elite and Premium schemes
3. they will include MMO and/or more Social gaming features
4. a big part of marketing will be the Asian region - esp China and South Korea
5. there will likely be versions for Android and IOS along with Console/PC on release date.
I have read some business investor write ups on the industry and despite new consoles coming out, all the big money is going to be made in the free to play / Social gaming sector.
the $60 AAA title cycle is becoming too expensive - too much risk for too little profit. That is the real reason why all the big franchises are basically retreads and sequels.
Publishers are looking for the steady income stream like World of Warcraft and social / MMO games.
Maybe the next gen FPS won't be free to play, but with almost all Publishers looking that direction, within 2 or 3 years, I expect BF, COD, Halo, etc all going F2P.
actually one of my predictions is almost true -
Activision's next PC "call of duty" will be Free to Play - In China.
http://kotaku.com/5923105/in-china-free+to+play-call-of-duty-online-is-o...
China is getting its own COD—and not merely as the new foreign bad guys. Meet Call of Duty Online.
Other than the single player campaign, isn't all Call of Duty online? Well, yes. But in China, it's Call of Duty Online. Announced today, the game is published by Chinese gaming giant Tencent. Activision first mentioned the free-to-play, microtransaction-based game back in February 2011.
While consoles are banned in China, the microtransaction-based model on PC is widespread throughout Mainland China. The country's gray market also makes consoles and console games readily available.
Late last month, Activision snatched up a slew of Call of Duty related web addresses—17 in total. The websites are probably protecting the Call of Duty online presence in China from internet bad guys.
wow that is great! and the truth. nice job